[dunc182]

It’s only natural for a Maths student to think about Maths a lot, because you’ve got to be crazy to do a degree in it. I like to think that I’m one of the rare sorts that isn’t entirely mad. But, on to the point. I’ve been thinking about an old Maths problem that you probably did while you were in high school for coursework or something. It’s the one when you’re given a piece of string that stays the same length and you have to make the shape that has the biggest area. It turns out to be a circle, but in the rectangles, the shape with the biggest area is where the sides are all the same length which is a square. Now think about a rectangle. You have two main attributes: the length, and the width. This is a theory I have come up with that ties in with that very proof. ‘How?’, I hear you say. All will become clear. First, make note of this diagram, which proves the square theory:

Rectangles


Now, how does this apply to Football Manager in any way? Well firstly, like it or not, FM is basically a set of equations and formulae and it’s all Maths based. But secondly, and more importantly, think of each position on the football field. First, your Goalkeeper. There are two main stats that you look for above any other in this player, and that is his Handling, and his Reflexes, the two things that any ‘keeper needs to be good at. All other positions will have these two key stats that you look at above all others:

• Goalkeeper – Handling, Reflexes
• Defender – Tackling, Marking
• MC – Dribbling, Passing
• Winger – Dribbling, Crossing
• Striker – Finishing, Composure

These stats that I have chosen can be argued, but in my opinion, these are the key two stats for each position. Other stats, like a player’s physical stats can help for any position. It is never a bad thing to be good physically, but these stats are not position related. It doesn’t matter if you disagree with my choices, my theory would work with any two stats, or in fact, any number of stats that are vital for a particular position. You just have to think that the stats that you pick are equal in importance.

Think about in a transfer window, when you’re shopping for a new striker. You narrow it down to these two players:

Player 1: Vagner Love

Player 2: Ben Sahar


As you can see, both are top notch strikers and have very similar stats all round. You can get either for a similar price. But which one should you pick? This is where to be careful, and apply my theory. Look at the two key stats, Finishing, and Composure. Both the players have a combination of 34/40 in this area, a world class combination. But they are not exactly the same values in each category. Vagner Love (VL) has 19 finishing and 15 composure, whereas Ben Sahar (BS) has 17 in each category. This is where you can fall prey to victim to psychology, because most skins will use a darker colour for stats between 16 and 20, so BS has tow dark stats, and VL only has one, and another, lighter shade. So straightaway, BS is looking more impressive, but it is important to look past that and look at the numbers themselves. It is also important to look past VL’s impressive 19 finishing. The stats are both as important as each other, and in my opinion, and using this theory, it is no good increasing one at the cost of another. If you pretend that each stat is the side of a rectangle, then you will get something like this:

Ben Sahar vs Vagner Love


So you can see that the rectangle for Ben Sahar has a larger area because his stats are the same for each side. Therefore, if my theory is correct, BS would be the one to choose over VL. This, however, is in the top flight of players. In lower leagues, or less prominent clubs, the stats will be lower and it will be easier to be duped by colours as they vary more. In this case, you would have made the right choice, but that will not always work. Also, in the lower leagues, where stats are more varied, choosing a player in this manner could make a much bigger difference. Obviously, VL and BS are going to hit plenty of goals anyway, it’s just that one of them might perform slightly better.

Remember that this technique can be applied to any position, and more than two stats. If two players have similar combined stats, then the one who has them closer bunched together should perform better, if my theory is correct. Remember also that this is a theory. I would use it and I think I can be pretty certain that even if it’s not correct, it can’t do much harm to use it. I have thought about other ways in which Maths can be applied to FM to give you that bit of edge, and hope to find the time to write about them in the near future.

I know that this article mat provoke some controversy between readers who don’t think the theory works, but try to keep criticism positive and constructive… :B):

[Tractor Boy]

That. Is a very good point/theory. I may test this tonight and see if it works.

[dunc182]

Tractor Boy, on Sep 23 2008, 06:08 PM, said:

That. Is a very good point/theory. I may test this tonight and see if it works.

Cheers :)
I think you'd only see the noticeable difference over a longer period of time though so to properly test it, you'd have to run parallel seasons with the only difference being that one player, which would be pretty time consuming. I don't think it needs proving really though because as I see it, the only way it can affect your campaign is in a good way. :msn_thumbs_up:

[dangtfc]

As I read it I thought "this has been typed as it's been thought". You know, when you have one of those Eureka moments and just start typing uncontrollably.

So it was a little garbled but I really enjoyed it, in fact I read it 3 times to make sure I'd grasped the concept fully!

Very interesting theory - of course I think we all know that the difference between two strikers isn't that simple, but nonetheless it was an interesting way of looking at the game. Particularly the part about psychology and when you see a load of dark red numbers you instantly cream yourself before you realise that it's for long throws, penalty taking and flair!

In a mathematically context - there are lots of other variables to take account of within the game that ultimately decide how well a player performs.

On a bit of a side-note; in the player profile screen you can obviously look at a players 'overview' which has a graphical representation of a players attributes. Does anyone use this? Particularly when comparing two similar players?

[dunc182]

Ha yeah, I understand what you mean about it being garbled :P
I find it hard to write about Maths with the same fluency I do with other kinds of topics. As for the Star diagram thing, I use it when cmoparing players, but I don't think it has enough points to it. I mean if you're looking for a striker, the main thing is 'Attacking' but you don't really want to know how good they are at defending! So that can be misleading as well!

[Drewcorp]

I had to re-red the opening couple of paragraphs a couple of times to understand it. But that may be because I'm not a maths wizz. Its a unique concept. I think its a good start but you could probably branch out and expand into a really unique and interesting area here that no ones really discussed before.

Its up to you, I'd be really interested in exploring variations of which stats are essential for which positions and which stats compliment each other. I've always been a believer that just because a player has great stats doesn't mean he's a great player. They have to be in the right place and "poor" looking players can be just as good because they excel in the right areas and may even have superior hidden attributes.

[White]

Good piece Dunc.

I got it on the first time of reading. Whilst I think it could be useful for comparing two players who have very similar stats besides the two considered to be the most important I think there are other things you would have to take into account such as potential, age, price so unless there are similar for the two players using this wouldn't be much use.

I think this is a really interesting way to look at the game and if you developed this to include other factors I think it could become amazing. Just a final thought, surely as part of your degree you will have to do projects. Maybe you could do a project on FM to come up with a formula that includes all the different variables.

[dangtfc]

White, on Sep 23 2008, 07:07 PM, said:

Good piece Dunc.

I got it on the first time of reading. Whilst I think it could be useful for comparing two players who have very similar stats besides the two considered to be the most important I think there are other things you would have to take into account such as potential, age, price so unless there are similar for the two players using this wouldn't be much use.

I think this is a really interesting way to look at the game and if you developed this to include other factors I think it could become amazing. Just a final thought, surely as part of your degree you will have to do projects. Maybe you could do a project on FM to come up with a formula that includes all the different variables.

:lol:

[Gangsta Diciple]

Really interesting guide and i love you concept. I, unlike most, dont mind math so this was kind of interesting to me. Try using it with different things? What about subtracting age, so the older player would make the lad your looking for have less points etc. Just a thought.

[Drewcorp]

dangtfc, on Sep 23 2008, 07:16 PM, said:

:lol:

Just got that, haha, calm down White its just a bit of writing no need to get a :[wank]: on

[White]

I'm just saying that I think it was a good layout and it's not hard what he's talking about, hence it's easy to get it first time because you two were putting him down in a way and I don't think he deserved that.

Tbh I'd hope I would understand that first time since I'm about to start a 4 year physics degree.

Yeah I get it too now :P

[Rob]

I really enjoyed it Dunc and like the concept but can't help feel it was slightly rushed. You told me about this idea earlier on this week and it was a hell of a lot more detailed than this and didnt just take into account shooting and composure. I would love to see a more detailed guide that explores it from various angles from different positions. Also you should write how it applies to team and player instructions as you mentioned the other day.

[dunc182]

Haha, controversy, cotroversy. Thanks for all the good comments. About the lack of depth to the article: I plan to write a few more short ones around the subject before I'm through with the Maths side of things. I've got plenty more material of this type to write about. Also White, that's a very good idea about the coursework. I think I'd need a very powerful computer to run a good project on it though, and a much bigger knowledge of computer science, which I doubt I'll ever have unless I change degrees. And GD, that is a great idea creating a points system to make the idea more effective. I'll have a ponder about it but it would probably take a lot of refinement tomake publishable so I don' t expect to be able to do it in the near future...however there should soon be another installment on the subject from me so I hope you'll read that with the same enthusiasm!

[dangtfc]

White, on Sep 23 2008, 07:10 PM, said:

I'm just saying that I think it was a good layout and it's not hard what he's talking about, hence it's easy to get it first time because you two were putting him down in a way and I don't think he deserved that.

Tbh I'd hope I would understand that first time since I'm about to start a 4 year physics degree.

Yeah I get it too now :P

:lol:


I kid mate - I think I speak to Drew as well when I say we weren't putting him down just offering constructive criticism on an otherwise excellent piece! :)

It's not you. It's me., on Sep 23 2008, 07:29 PM, said:

I really enjoyed it Dunc and like the concept but can't help feel it was slightly rushed. You told me about this idea earlier on this week and it was a hell of a lot more detailed than this and didnt just take into account shooting and composure. I would love to see a more detailed guide that explores it from various angles from different positions. Also you should write how it applies to team and player instructions as you mentioned the other day.

Absolutely 100% agree with this. ^^^^^^